South African businesses had a rough September. The S&P Global South Africa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.0 from 50.5 in August, Reuters reported on 5 October, slipping below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction and marking the fastest decline since December 2025.
Customers hold back
New orders dropped at their sharpest rate in two and a half years. Firms told surveyors that customers were reacting to rising prices and uncertainty over fuel costs, and worrying about the economy at home and abroad. Output and stock purchases fell too.
There was one bright spot: export orders rose for a fourth month running. It was not enough to lift the overall reading.
Durban delays and dearer diesel
Deliveries from suppliers slowed by the most since February 2024. Companies blamed congestion at the Port of Durban, shipping disruption and shortages of materials.
Costs kept climbing, led by fuel. Purchase prices rose at a three-month high, and firms pushed up their own prices at the fastest rate since June. Employment was broadly unchanged, with only a slight dip in headcount.
Looking past the gloom
Confidence improved. Business expectations rose for a third month to their strongest since May, as firms bet on supply problems easing and fuel getting cheaper. The PMI nevertheless indicated weaker private-sector business conditions in September.
